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Trump’s world

At least holidays to the US will be cheap for a while.

It is hard to know where to start with a Trump presidency.

Will he really rip up NAFTA, start building a wall on the Mexican border, toss out ‘illegals’ and block Muslim immigrants?

Or will wiser heads prevail once he grabs the reins of power and the full implications of his various outrageous and incoherent policy announcements become apparent?

The terrifying thing is that no-one knows.

Who knows how a bullying, narcissistic and misogynistic demagogue is going to behave in the White House.

But if he lives up to even a bit of his rhetoric, both the US and the world are in form some very ugly times.

Here’s just a sampling of the changes a Trump presidency may usher in, and how they would affect the world, and Australia.

In line with his much less internationalist view of America’s role, Trump is likely to oversee a reversal of Obama’s pivot to Asia.

Asia Pacific allies like Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand will be left to do more of the heavy lifting in regarding regional security. Some might be tempted to move closer to China.

China itself faces great uncertainty.

Trump has indicated he wants to throw up the tariff barriers to Chinese imports. It is a move that will not only impoverish many who voted for him in the first place, by denying them access to the cheap goods that have softened the impact of stagnant wage, but could be very destabilising for the Chinese Government.

Though China has been trying to engineer a change in the economy toward consumption-driven growth, it is still a work in progress, and much of its prosperity is still tied to exports. If Trump was to pull up the shutters on China’s biggest market, the consequences would be dire – not just for China, but also Australia, which depends on Chinese demand for much of its export sales.

If Trump sparks a trade war of the kind that preceded World War Two, when trade barriers went up around the world, the political and economic damage will be huge. The post-war world order that has driven unprecedented prosperity – billions propelled from poverty, disease and malnutrition abating – could be shattered. We would all be the much poorer for it.

The fissures within the US itself that have been exposed by the hate-filled campaign of the last 12 months may widen, instead of narrow, particularly as the fortunes of the have-nots deteriorate further.

Then there is the worry that comes with a nuclear arsenal capable of killing us all many times over being in the hands of one that seems so volatile and unstable.

It is a grim outlook.

But there are at least two threads of hope.

One is that this becomes the high water mark for the craziness that has gripped the world this year. The so-called anti-establishment crowd (who seem very disparate except, maybe to themselves) have had their Brexit, and they have populated the Australian Senate with fringe-dwelling nutters.

But under the pressure of actually trying to do something, and reconciling interests that are increasingly at odds, the coalitions of resentment and anger that have propelled such outcomes may evaporate, and the promises of better times that they sold will be seen as the flimsy soundbites they were.

The second hope is that Europe will cleave to its moderate sensible course and thrive as smart money exits the US and China sees it as an increasingly attractive place for investment.

It may become a salutary lesson for the naysayers in the US and Britain of what they gave up for their collective fit of pique.

In the meantime, can someone please keep Trump away from that button!

 

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