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Trump’s world

At least holidays to the US will be cheap for a while.

It is hard to know where to start with a Trump presidency.

Will he really rip up NAFTA, start building a wall on the Mexican border, toss out ‘illegals’ and block Muslim immigrants?

Or will wiser heads prevail once he grabs the reins of power and the full implications of his various outrageous and incoherent policy announcements become apparent?

The terrifying thing is that no-one knows.

Who knows how a bullying, narcissistic and misogynistic demagogue is going to behave in the White House.

But if he lives up to even a bit of his rhetoric, both the US and the world are in form some very ugly times.

Here’s just a sampling of the changes a Trump presidency may usher in, and how they would affect the world, and Australia.

In line with his much less internationalist view of America’s role, Trump is likely to oversee a reversal of Obama’s pivot to Asia.

Asia Pacific allies like Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand will be left to do more of the heavy lifting in regarding regional security. Some might be tempted to move closer to China.

China itself faces great uncertainty.

Trump has indicated he wants to throw up the tariff barriers to Chinese imports. It is a move that will not only impoverish many who voted for him in the first place, by denying them access to the cheap goods that have softened the impact of stagnant wage, but could be very destabilising for the Chinese Government.

Though China has been trying to engineer a change in the economy toward consumption-driven growth, it is still a work in progress, and much of its prosperity is still tied to exports. If Trump was to pull up the shutters on China’s biggest market, the consequences would be dire – not just for China, but also Australia, which depends on Chinese demand for much of its export sales.

If Trump sparks a trade war of the kind that preceded World War Two, when trade barriers went up around the world, the political and economic damage will be huge. The post-war world order that has driven unprecedented prosperity – billions propelled from poverty, disease and malnutrition abating – could be shattered. We would all be the much poorer for it.

The fissures within the US itself that have been exposed by the hate-filled campaign of the last 12 months may widen, instead of narrow, particularly as the fortunes of the have-nots deteriorate further.

Then there is the worry that comes with a nuclear arsenal capable of killing us all many times over being in the hands of one that seems so volatile and unstable.

It is a grim outlook.

But there are at least two threads of hope.

One is that this becomes the high water mark for the craziness that has gripped the world this year. The so-called anti-establishment crowd (who seem very disparate except, maybe to themselves) have had their Brexit, and they have populated the Australian Senate with fringe-dwelling nutters.

But under the pressure of actually trying to do something, and reconciling interests that are increasingly at odds, the coalitions of resentment and anger that have propelled such outcomes may evaporate, and the promises of better times that they sold will be seen as the flimsy soundbites they were.

The second hope is that Europe will cleave to its moderate sensible course and thrive as smart money exits the US and China sees it as an increasingly attractive place for investment.

It may become a salutary lesson for the naysayers in the US and Britain of what they gave up for their collective fit of pique.

In the meantime, can someone please keep Trump away from that button!

 

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ANZAC spirit fails drug test

It can be surprisingly difficult to get along with your neighbours, even when you frequently play sport together and have a lot more in common, besides.
The unheralded decision of the Australian and New Zealand governments to abandon 11 years of work on a joint regulatory regime for medicines, to be overseen by a single trans-Tasman watchdog, is a reminder of how hard it can be to achieve a level of harmony even between two seemingly similar countries.
Earlier this afternoon, Australian Health Minister Peter Dutton and his New Zealand counterpart Dr Jonathan Coleman jointly announced agreement to “cease efforts” to establish a joint therapeutic products regulator.
Aside from what this means for hopes of cheaper and more readily available medicines in the two countries, and a smaller regulatory burden for business, it is a significant blow – at least symbolically – to aspirations for much greater economic co-operation between the two countries.
When plans for the Australia New Zealand Therapeutic Products Agency were first hatched in 2003, it was amid a swirl of trans-Tasman bonhomie.
The agency was to have been the first fully joint trans-Tasman regulator, and the harbinger of much more to come.
The creation of the ANZTPA was seen as a relatively straightforward task that would embody the ambition of much more intimate trans-Tasman relations expressed in the Closer Economic Relations pact between the two countries, and blaze the trail of increased co-operation.
The unspoken ambition of some has been for the creation of a single ANZAC market.
But if the two countries can’t even agree on something as seemingly relatively straightforward and mundane as the regulation of drugs and medical devices, what hope for other areas of activity?
In their joint announcement, Mr Dutton and Dr Coleman said that the decision to abandon the project was taken “following a comprehensive review of progress and assessment of the costs and benefits to each country of proceeding”.
The collapse of this particular project hardly means the idea of closer Australia-New Zealand economic integration is dead.
But it does yet again call into questions the idea that closer economic ties will inevitably resolve political differences between countries and make national boundaries increasingly invisible.
Even a brief contemplation of the internecine conflicts and testy relationships that bubble beneath the surface between the members states of the European Union or the United States should be evidence enough of the fallacy of that.

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