Tag Archives: MYEFO

Why a bigger deficit is not all bad

The Federal Government’s financial position continues to deteriorate.

The latest monthly snapshot of Commonwealth finances shows the deficit reached $35.48 billion in the 12 months to December – $763 million larger than was predicted in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which came out only a month ago.

It means there is going to be no let-up in the pressure on Federal Ministers to find savings ahead of the election year Budget released on 10 May.

But, promisingly for the Government, the deterioration in the Budget position was largely due to higher-than-expected cash payments than yet another unexpected revenue write-down.

In fact, there are some small signs that the flood of red ink that has drenched the tax revenue columns of Budget for the past few years may be starting to slow.

Gross income tax receipts ($87.6 billion for the financial year-to-date) were a little weaker than forecast in MYEFO ($88.1 billion), but recent jobs growth will spur hope of a strengthening in that revenue stream.

Even more optimistically, company tax receipts reached $30.82 billion so far this financial year – about $750 million more than anticipated in MYEFO.

Of course, this month’s sharemarket plunge might yet cruel this improvement.

Another cause for optimism is that GST receipts were mareginally stronger than expected, reflecting the increased willingness of consumers to shop and firms to invest.

If this improvement in activity, as reflected in the tax revenue figures, is sustained, then hopes that the country is well advanced in its adjustment to the end of the mining investment boom – – aided by the weakening of the dollar – will appear increasingly well founded.

 

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An inconvenient obsession

There was a glimmer of hope earlier today that, boxed repeatedly around the head by evidence that the economy isn’t really travelling so well and that slashing Government spending was only compounding the problem, Joe Hockey had a conversion of sorts.
The Treasurer talked in almost Keynesian terms of the need for the Budget to act as a “shock absorber” for the economy.
Was the political obsession with returning the Budget to surplus as soon as a possible and bugger the consequences for the rest of the economy to be consigned to the rubbish heap of history?
Unfortunately, it appears not.
Whatever Joe Hockey’s rhetoric, in its latest update on the economy, the Government remains obsessed about public spending, devoting a major slab of the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) to its “Smaller Government” reforms, including cutting the size of the public service to levels last seen in 2007-08, holding down public sector wage growth to 1.5 per cent a year and axing 175 Government bodies.
None of these bode well for support for economic activity.
The fact is, in earlier times, governments could fiddle with the Budget and not worry too much about the effects on the economy.
But, as Reserve Bank of Australia officials pointed out in a research paper earlier this year, governments need to be a lot more careful now:
“The changes to the taxation system overall are likely to have increased the sensitivity of revenues to fluctuations in the terms of trade and economic activity in the current episode.[8] The larger size of government means that the operation of automatic stabilisers has a more significant effect on overall economic activity” – Australia after the Terms of Trade Boom, RMA Bulletin, March 2014.
There is no doubt that the Budget is looking pretty ugly.
Tax receipt estimates have been slashed by $31.6 billion since May, contributing to a $43.7 billion deterioration in the Budget position.
As a result, the deficit this year (2014-15) is expected to reach $40.4 billion (as opposed to $29.8 billion in May), and the books will stay in the red right through the forward estimates – a deficit of $11.5 billion is projected in 2017-18.
There is no return to surplus projected until very late this decade, at the earliest.
This outlook is hardly surprising given what we have been through, not least a global crisis that has left the international financial system badly shaken.
Overlaid on this has been the unsettling surge and ebb of the resources sector.
Booms, whatever their source, rarely end smoothly, and the economy was always likely to hit some rocky times as mining-related investment faded and other sectors were slow to pick up.
One of the features of this period – a rapid decline in the terms of trade – was hardly unanticipated. All along, it was expected that the massive worldwide investment in mining capacity, encouraged by soaring commodity prices, would drive a huge increase in supply that would drive prices down – and this is what has happened.
In the lead-up to releasing today’s Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Government has been enthusiastically briefing the media on what has been described as a “collapse” in the terms of trade (principally as a result of plunging iron ore prices) and what this has meant to Commonwealth revenues.
It has been keen to highlight a 50 per cent plunge in global iron ore prices since the start of the year, including 30 per cent since the May Budget.
“The extent of the fall in the price was widely unexpected,” the Government said in MYEFO – Treasury had estimated a drop from $US120 a tonne to $US92 a tonne by mid-2016, whereas it is currently at $US63 a tonne.
The result of these and other moves, the Government says in MYEFO, “would be the largest fall in the terms of trade in a financial year since the Australian Bureau of Statistic’s Annual National Accounts started in 1959-60”.
But, as one of this column’s correspondents, Property Insights principal Rob Ellis points out, claims of a record fall in the terms of trade are overblown.
True, the terms of trade have fallen sharply (the index has fallen below 160 points surging above 180 around the start of the decade), but they are still very high in historical terms (see chart).
Nonetheless, the Government has trimmed its real non-farm GDP growth forecasts. The economy is now expected to expand by 2.5 per cent this financial year (a 0.25 percentage point reduction from the May forecast) but still grow by 3 per cent in 2015-16.
And it expects household consumption to grow at a similar rate – a questionable assumption when many workers are seeing their pay go backwards in real terms, and rising unemployment and slowing house price growth are only making households even more careful about their spending.
Dumping even more off the public payroll and squeezing the incomes of those left on it is only going to make the task of achieving these growth forecast more difficult.
terms of trade

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Tony Abbott’s world just gets uglier

The ugly position the Abbott Government finds itself in has been underlined by the latest tax revenue and public expenditure figures from the official statistician.
A lot of attention will probably be drawn to the 15 per cent plunge in tax receipts across all levels of government in the September quarter to less than $100 billion.
There is no doubt that tumbling commodity prices and weak wages growth are weighing heavily on the Budget ledger – Deloitte Access Economics reckons the write-downs will push the Budget deficit to $34.7 billion this financial year – $5 billion more than the Government forecast in May.
But the steep 15 per cent fall reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today is hardly unexpected – it happens every year at this time. Historically, the three months to September is the weakest quarter for tax collections, for the obvious reason that most corporations settle their annual tax bill in the June quarter.
What is more telling is the ABS’s assessment that Commonwealth spending (ex-defence) grew 2.2 per cent in the September quarter and is up more than a 1 per cent from where it was when the Coalition came to office little more than a year ago.
The Government will probably claim that this is because so many of its Budget savings measures have been stymied by a hostile Senate.
But they should not be let off the hook so easily.
Take the $7 Medicare co-payment proposal, which is languishing on the Government’s books and hasn’t even made it onto Parliament’s agenda yet.
The Government claims it will save $3.5 billion by slicing $5 from Medicare rebates for GP, pathology and diagnostic imaging services. But this money has not been slated to improve the Budget bottom line.
Instead, the revenue was to be directed to the Medical Research Future Fund, to provide a fig leaf for Tony Abbott’s pre-election pledge not to cut spending on health.
Other measures will take years to deliver savings, such as shifting more tertiary tuition costs onto students.
Ripping more than $1.8 billion out of public hospital funding is a significant (if short-sighted) savings measure, but it won’t really have a big impact on the bottom line until 2017-18, while abolishing programs and agencies, such as the Australian National Preventive Health Agency are mostly small beer (scrapping ANPHA will realise just $6.4 million in savings over four years).
Instead, the Government has lumbered itself with a raft of unnecessary costs arising from impulsive and ill-considered decisions affecting the machinery of government.
For instance, the Government reckons that – on paper, at least – abolishing AusAID and absorbing its functions within DFAT will save $397.2 million over four years.
But there are good reasons to question whether the savings will approach anything like that.
First of all, the savings were predicated on staff cuts, and DFAT offered attractive redundancy packages to entice people to leave. As at 30 June, 272 DFAT staff had accepted a voluntary redundancy. Tellingly, a majority (56 per cent) were 50 years or older and 55 per cent were executive level staff – so their payouts would not have been cheap.
Secondly, the entire process was a productivity killer. For months, nothing much was done as management worked out how to takeover would work, and sorted out the structure of the new, larger, organisation.
Third, the process has been a morale killer for many in the Department, further hitting productivity.
You can only wonder whether all these flow-on costs formed part of the calculation when the Budget was being drawn up. I suspect not.
A similar gag-handed decision is to relocate many of the functions of the Department of Agriculture to regional centres dotted across the country.
For an agrarian socialist, it sounds like a neat way of spreading jobs and encouraging economic activity in smaller regional centres.
But reality has a way of mugging such hopes.
There is the cost of breaking the lease on existing premises, locating and securing appropriate accommodation, assisting staff who are willing to relocate and paying out and replacing staff who are not.
Then there’s the increased expense of co-ordinating activities across and geographically dispersed and decentralised organisation – not least higher communication and travel expenses.
Then there is the challenge of luring appropriately skilled and experienced staff to work in these regional offices – not many rural communities will be flush with people experienced in, say, administering a grants program or overseeing research projects.
As the Government struggles to come up with a compelling narrative to pitch its forthcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, it will have seen precious few green shoots of hope regarding the Budget books.
As Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens noted today, it will be “some time yet” before there is a sustained fall in unemployment, so growth in wages (and hence income tax revenue) will be weak for quite a while yet.
And desultory economic growth will not do much for corporate profits or tax receipts either.
If the Government wants to burnish the Budget books and chart a convincing path back to surplus, it will have to contemplate killing more than a few sacred cows, like the massive subsidies currently built into the system for superannuants and hugely expensive corporate tax breaks and handouts.
If Tony Abbott truly thought last May’s Budget was brave, then he and Joe Hockey will have to deliver something of Homeric proportions if they are serious about setting the Budget on a sustainable path.
Otherwise, we’ll just continue to bumble along on familiar our shambolic path of hasty, ill-conceived and partisan Budget decisions and just hope that something – another China, perhaps? – comes along to paper over the glaring inadequacies of the nation’s political class.

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Dire MYEFO numbers just political theatre

The manner by which the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook is being released – a speech by Treasurer Joe Hockey to the National Press Club – tells you all you need to know about what this document is really all about.
For many years now it has been apparent that the main significance of the major Government economic statements, the annual Budget and MYEFO, has been as set pieces of political theatre rather than anything much to do with running the economy.
The days of markets surging or tumbling on Budget forecasts for growth and spending are long gone.
In the hands of Treasurers who were able political operators (think Paul Keating and Peter Costello), Budgets were more about imagery than numbers.
Keating had his emblematic turns of phrase, like “this is the one [Budget] that brings home the bacon”. During the 2000s, Costello delivered a string of Budgets with “surprise” revenue upgrades (to the extent that Treasury’s forecasting abilities became the butt of jokes).
This is how Hockey’s performance today needs to be viewed.
When he bemoans the parlous state of Government finances bequeathed to him by Labor, take it as a piece of political theatre, rather than an unsentimental appraisal of the fiscal position.
As has been extensively telegraphed by the Government through a series of leaks, MYEFO is likely to show the Budget deficit has ballooned out to close to $50 billion – a massive deterioration from the $30.1 billion estimated in the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook released in mid-August.
Has the world really become so much darker in the past four months? The short answer is no.
While all the publicity surrounding the departure of Holden and other high profile business problems may have you thinking otherwise, the evidence in fact suggests that things are improving.
Internationally, the US recovery appears to be strengthening, China shows no signs of falling into the hole that many feared, and the euro zone appears to be negotiating the (very) early stages of a recovery.
Domestically, low interest rates are boosting housing activity and the dollar is easing lower. Treasury is basing its gloomier outlook on several developments since PEFO. It says the pick-up in non-mining activity and housing activity is slower than it was expecting, while mining investment has fallen more sharply than anticipated. “As a consequence,” MYEFO says, “employment growth is expected to remain subdued, and wage growth is forecast to remain well below trend.” This in turn will mean households hold back on their spending, restraining growth. All quite plausible.

But as Treasury itself admits, “nominal GDP growth forecasts carry with them additional uncertainty. The 70 per cent confidence interval for average annual nominal GDP growth over the forecast period ranges from 2 per cent to 5 per cent”. That is a not-insignificant range.

The economy’s transition away from mining investment-led growth to other supports for activity remains hesitant, and the speed with which other sources of growth develop is uncertain. But there is evidence that consumers and businesses hare shedding the funk that has held back spending and investment (excepting resources) ever since the GFC.
But the political story line Hockey wants to outline begins with Australia under Labor being driven into the ground. Queue forbidding music, dark skies and storm-lashed seas.
Over coming years, the narrative will go, the storm clouds will gradually dissipate, and at some yet-to-be-determined point in the future (though possibly in the months before the next Federal election) the first rays of economic sunshine will pierce the gloom, and the Coalition will be able to assure voters is has the country on track.
It is all a piece of political alchemy.
The fact is, in recent weeks, Treasury will have presented Hockey with a range of forecasts for nominal GDP (and hence, revenue) that range from the optimistic to the pessimistic, depending on various scenarios regarding developments in international economic conditions, the exchange rate, commodity prices, the rate of slowdown in mining investment and the speed of improvement in activity in other parts of the economy.
For his political purposes, Hockey has plumped for the worst-case scenario of soft growth and weak revenue flows.
This is not to say that Treasury has ‘invented’ the numbers to suit the Government’s political agenda – the forecasts are plausible and justifiable.
But they are just part of a range of possible outcomes, as Treasury itself explains in Attachments A and B in Part 3 of MYEFO.

On page 57, Treasury publishes a chart (Chart 3.9) indicating that “there is notable uncertainty around receipt forecasts and that this uncertainty increases over the estimates period”. For 2013-14, the 70 per cent confidence interval is a range of $20 billion and, at 90 per cent confidence interval, it is $30 billion.

Treasury is similarly cautious about its forecasts for the underlying cash balance (Chart 3.11, p58). The 70 per cent confidence interval for its 2013-14 forecast is $25 billion, and at 90 per cent it is $40 billion.

What the Coalition is doing with the Treasury numbers is nothing new. In the same way, for several years in a row, Labor Budgets contained projections for growth and revenue (particularly earnings from the mining tax) that were much more optimistic than many thought probable, because they supported the-then Government’s political goal of achieving a surplus in a set period.
Don’t get me wrong – Government spending is a problem. But the Coalition so far is taking the same Magic Pudding approach to public finances as Labor.
The current game of deficit/surplus one-upmanship between the major political parties is tiresome and empty.
It will only mean something when there is recognition of the much more important issue (as Rob Burgess highlights in Business Spectator today) of the structural position of the Budget.
The Parliamentary Budget Office forecasts the Budget to be in structural deficit until at least 2016-17, and thought bubbles like the Coalition’s ‘Direct Action’ climate change policy and its over-the-top paid parental leave scheme suggest the Government has no more appetite to tackle the problem than Labor ever did.

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