Nothing to see here, move along

The Reserve Bank of Australia is dangling a prolonged period of record low interest rates in front of businesses and consumers as it tries to foster economic growth in the face of what is expected to be an austere Federal Budget.
The release of the National Commission of Audit report has amped up concerns, particularly among retailers and other businesses directly dependent on household spending, that a severe Budget will crunch spending and stall growth.
While the forthcoming Budget would undoubtedly have figured in the discussions of the RBA Board, Governor Glenn Stevens was content to repeat his observation from last month that “public spending is scheduled to be subdued”.
Instead, the central banker drew attention to developments in the labour market, and their implications for inflation and, hence, interest rates.
The surprise drop in the unemployment rate in March to 5.8 per cent had some speculating that the labour market was on the improve, raising the prospect that monetary policy might soon have to tighten.
But the RBA thinks this outlook is premature.
Mr Steven admitted that there were signs conditions in the labour market were improving, but cautioned “it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently”.
Budget cuts to the public service and Commonwealth spending (including welfare payments) are only likely to prolong the period of softness in the labour market.
While this is bad news for job seekers and those hoping to trade up to a better position, weak employment growth has had a silver lining.
As Mr Stevens explains, the slack labour market has helped keep a lid on wages, which in turn has limited the ability of retailers to jack up their prices.
The result is that the cost of domestically-priced goods and services (often the driver of inflation) has been contained, and the RBA Governor said “that should continue to be the case over the next one to two years, even with lower levels of the exchange rate”.
What that means is that the Reserve Bank does not see inflation breaching its 2 to 3 per cent target band in the next two years, giving it ample room to hold interest rates down for an extended period.
While it is unlikely that they will still be this low in early 2016, it could well be late this year or even early 2015 before the RBA feels compelled to begin edging them up – notwithstanding the surge in house prices in the major cities.

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