Tag Archives: investment

Record low wage growth gives lie to Abbott’s IR obsession

The ridiculousness of the Abbott Government’s industrial relations obsession has been thrown into stark relief by figures showing wages are growing at their slowest rate since at least 1997.

The Wage Price Index measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics rose by 0.7 per cent in the December quarter, taking annual growth to 2.6 per cent – the lowest rate in the 16-year history of the series.

The result gives a lie to the inflated rhetoric about out-of-control wage claims blasted out by the Government in recent weeks as it has tried to pin the blame for a succession of high-profile factory closures such as SPC, Holden, Toyota and Alcoa on workers.

It is hard to have much confidence in the economic grasp of the Government while they carry on with their IR sideshow.

Sure, wages are part of Australia’s relatively high (by international comparison) cost base, but so are energy and other utility charges, transport costs, regulatory fees and so on.

Relatively high wages, by themselves, should not be automatically seen or portrayed as something bad and undesirable, as many IR obsessives try to make out. Just ask any merchant banker.

They become a concern where they are not supported by similarly high productivity, and that can be due to a combination of factors that include (but are not limited to) work practices, such as management and investment.

The recent mining investment boom provided a prime example. Resource companies, rushing to cash in on sky-high global commodity prices, threw enormous resources of labour and capital at the task of boosting production. Price was virtually no object. This had the effect of pushing up the cost of labour (wages) and the prices of goods and services.

In the short term, this helped push up labour casts and killed productivity. But as labour-intensive construction has ended and expanded mines and upgraded ports, roads and rail links have come into operation, export volumes have boomed.

In productivity terms, the amount of value produced by each worker left in the mining sector after the building crews have moved out has surged.

Across the economy, there is a need to lift productivity, but the tired old thinking of many in Government and business who automatically equate this with screwing down on wages and conditions needs to end.

Obviously, business models built solely on competing directly with low-cost manufacturers internationally are becoming increasingly unsustainable.

But the answer isn’t to attack wages and conditions.

By many measures, Australia has a highly skilled, flexible and productive workforce.

Employers in both the public and private sectors get an enormous, they rarely acknowledged, subsidy from employees who regularly work many more hours than they are paid for.

Crude calculations using ABS employment and aggregate hours worked figures show that each employee worked an average of 35.5 hours a week in January. Take into account that around a third of these workers were part-time, and that January is traditionally a holiday period, and it suggests that a substantial proportion of the workforce work longer than the ‘standard’ 37.5 hour week, and many are likely to do so without paid overtime.

Another measure is time lost to industrial disputes. Official figures show that in the 12 months to the September 2013 quarter, an average of just 3 working days were lost to industrial disputes for every 1000 workers. These are not the numbers you would expect to see from a habitually disruptive workforce.

As was discussed in an earlier blog, Time to curb outrageous salaries – or lift investment?, labour is losing out to capital in grabbing a share of earnings. The Economist cited figures from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development showing that labour captured 62 per cent of all income in the 2000s, down from more than 66 per cent in the early 1990s.

Yes, the nation has a productivity challenge. And yes, workers have a role to play in lifting productivity.

But maybe employers and managers should cast a critical eye over their own remuneration and ways of operating, rather than simply pencilling in cuts to the pay and conditions of their employees.

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RBA locks in 2.5 per cent cash rate – for now

Don’t expect interest rates to go up any time soon but, equally, don’t expect them to go down – that was the clear message from the Reserve Bank today.
In unusually direct language, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has moved to lay to rest interest rate speculation for the next few months, saying the most prudent course for the central bank to take was likely to be “a period of stability in interest rates”.
That is central bank speak for everyone – those predicting imminent rate rises, and those calling for rate cuts – to take a Bex and calm down.
As mortgage holders ponder the pros and cons of fixing part of their loan, and investors do their credit sums, the Reserve Bank has tried to give some reassurance by flagging official rates are not likely to move for some time yet.
As widely tipped, the RBA has decided to hold the official cash rate at 2.5 per cent this month.
What many may not have anticipated though, was the central bank’s unusual willingness to flag its interest rate intentions.
Following the Reserve Bank Board’s first meeting for 2014, Mr Stevens released a statement that showed the RBA is in no rush to change its policy settings.
“On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates,” he said.
The Reserve Bank sees no compelling reasons yet for either a rate increase, or a rate cut.
Unexpectedly strong inflation growth in the December quarter (underlying inflation grew by 0.9 per cent to be up 2.6 per cent from a year earlier), along with the falling exchange rate and increased housing activity, had prompted some to speculate that the RBA would soon have to consider raising the c ash rate.
But while Governor Stevens admitted monetary policy was “accommodative”, interest rates were “very low”, and house prices have surged, there was as no yet sign of a dangerous build up in indebtedness. In fact, household credit growth is moderate.
On inflation, the central bank so far does not seem to be phased by the jump in prices in December, some of which it attributed to importers and retailers quickly passing through to consumers much of the increase in costs caused by the easing exchange rate.
Mr Stevens said that although inflation was stronger than the central bank had predicted when it released its most recent Statement on Monetary Policy late last year, it was “still consistent with the 2 to 3 per cent target over the next two years”.
Those arguing the case for a rate cut have pointed to the nation’s anaemic growth rate (2.3 per cent in the 12 months to the September quarter 2013), a plunge in mining investment and weak labour market (the economy shed almost 32,000 full-time jobs in December and the unemployment rate is expected to rise above its current 5.8 per cent) to show the need for more support for activity.
But to this line of argument, Mr Stevens said monetary policy was “appropriately configured” to foster growth in demand (ie don’t expect them to go any lower).
Of course, the RBA might be considering the possibility (raised by Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson) that commercial banks will lower their lending rates as they secure cheaper sources of funding on international markets. The Governor’s statement gives no hint on this front, except to say that long-term interest rates and risk spreads remain low, and there is adequate funding available through credit and equity markets.
As the economy gropes toward sources of growth to replace the sugar hit from resources investment, conditions are likely to stay rocky and uncertain.
In this shifting economic environment the RBA has moved to provide consumers and investors with one welcome point of consistency, at least for the next few months.

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Time to curb outrageous salaries – or lift investment?

People really have got Maurice Newman all wrong.

When the former ASX boss compared minimum wage rates across the Anglosphere and Europe, many assumed he was pushing for a pay cut for low paid workers.

In fact, in his roundabout way, he was making the case for the top-heavy wage structures of the major corporations to be heavily pruned.

He mightn’t have said so outright, but Newman was challenging company boards to rethink the way they set executive pay – instead of trying to match the highest rates on offer on the global market, he was urging them to go low-ball.

That, at least, seemed to be the logical extension of his argument.

In an incisive piece of analysis, uncluttered by arcane economic concepts such as purchasing power parity, Newman told the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia at a function on 11 November that a worker on the minimum wage in Australia working a 38-hour week earned $US33,355 a year, compared with $US22,776 a year for a worker on the Canadian minimum wage, and just $15,080 for an equivalent worker in the United States.

“We cannot hide the fact that Australian wage rates are very high by international standards,” he thundered, “and that our system is dogged by rigidities.”

His argument brought to mind an interesting piece of analysis in The Economist examining the labour share of national income. It cited figures from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development showing that labour captured 62 per cent of all income in the 2000s, down from more than 66 per cent in the early 1990s.

The United States, which Maurice regards so enviously, has shared in the decline, though the pain is spread unevenly – there, the top 1 per cent of wage earners have seen their share of income increase while the remaining 99 per cent have suffered 4.5 percentage point decline.

As The Economist notes, this has meant that productivity gains are no longer translating into broad-based wage increases. Instead, the benefits are accruing to the owners of capital.

This is not just a northern hemisphere phenomenon.

Figures compiled by the Reserve Bank of Australia show that unit labour costs as a proportion of gross domestic product have shrunk since the early 1990s. And the latest Wage Price Index figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that salaries are keeping just ahead of inflation – the index was up 0.5 per cent in the September quarter, taking annual wages growth to 2.65 per cent.

Interestingly, while some of this decline can be attributed to the effects of competition from cheaper imports, researchers at the University of Chicago have found that a substantial part of it is due to technology.

They found that the cost of capital goods, relative to consumer items, has plunged 25 per cent in the last 35 years, making it increasingly attractive to swap labour for technology.

If Maurice is really all about increased productivity, and isn’t just attempting to restart the class war from the top, he should drop his tired old wage cutting rhetoric and instead urge his business compadres to increase their capital investment.

Just a thought.

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