Growth numbers suggest Abbott should be careful in cutting

As the Abbott Government’s Commission of Audit hunts for spending cuts and bureaucratic flab, the latest national accounts might give it some pause for thought about how zealous it should be.

The figures show that public spending added a hefty 1.3 percentage points to growth in the September quarter – without this contribution the already decidedly-anaemic GDP numbers (up 0.6 per cent in the quarter, 2.3 per cent for 12 months) would have been much worse.

As the numbers make clear, this is a fragile time for the economy, with a hesitant transition underway from mining investment toward other sources of growth.

Housing activity is strengthening, but the lift in the household savings ratio to 11.1 per cent is a fair indicator that although consumer confidence is improving, people remain cautious. (No doubt the urge to save was heightened by the air of uncertainty that surrounds any federal election, but the tepid labour market is probably a more lasting influence).

There are undoubtedly savings to be had in public spending, but in the zeal to make cuts, the Government needs to keep in mind that the public sector is not just a cost centre – it purchases goods and services, and it employs people, giving them the wherewithal to make their own purchases.

Australia is a long, long way from southern Europe, geographically and economically, but the experience of countries like Greece and Spain show that ill-timed austerity can make things far worse.

  

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No more rate cuts, but no rush to tighten yet

Interest rates look set to head higher, but the RBA’s “considerable uncertainty” about the pace of recovery in much of the economy means the first rate hike of the cycle could be delayed until well into 2014.

In a widely-anticipated decision, the RBA Board has decided to hold the cash rate at 2.5 per cent – meaning it will have been at this historically low level for six months by the time of the Board’s next meeting on February 4.

There is clear evidence that low interest rates are having an effect.

The property market is strengthening (house prices have risen, building approvals are up 23 per cent from a year ago), company profits are growing (up almost 9 per cent in 12 months), shares are rising (up 20 per cent in the year to date), and retail sales are increasing at a sustained solid clip (three consecutive monthly increases of 0.5 per cent or greater).

And the central bank thinks there is more of such news to come.

As RBA Governor Glenn Stevens put it today, “The full effects of these decisions [to ease monetary policy] are still coming through, and will be for a while yet”.

This is coupled with tentative signs that activity in the non-mining parts of the economy is picking up.

Official capital expenditure data showed manufacturers and other businesses were gradually increasing their investment, and the latest report from credit reporting firm Dun & Bradstreet showed 10 per cent of firms intend to hire extra staff in the first quarter of 2014.

If this is accurate, and businesses act on their hiring intentions, the unemployment rate may not rise much higher.

In further promising news, the official GDP numbers for the September quarter, due out tomorrow, may also be a bit stronger than many have been predicting.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics threw in a surprise today with its report that the trade surplus surged more than 50 per cent in three months to almost $9 billion, adding around 0.7 of a percentage point to activity in the September quarter.

The RBA’s known unknowns: the dollar and non-mining activity

But the persistently strong dollar and the sputtering recovery in economic activity outside the mining sector are the two greatest areas of uncertainty for the Reserve Bank.

Continuing recent efforts to talk the currency down, Stevens said the dollar (which was trading at just below US91 cents following the RBA announcement) was “still uncomfortably high”.

He almost didn’t need to add that the high exchange rate will have to come down in order for the economy to achieve “balanced” growth.

On this front, the Governor admitted that expectations for an acceleration in activity outside the mining sector were subject to “considerable uncertainty”.

Market Economics managing director Stephen Koukoulas is one of the few who for some time now have been predicting rates to rise in 2014 – he tips in the first three months of next year.

But the strong dollar could make it hesitate.

Koukoulas, for one, thinks there is much more the RBA needs to do much more to get the currency down – jawboning alone has had little effect.

If he is right, look for big sell-offs of the currency in coming days.

 

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A good week for the RBA

Every now and then you have a week when things seem to go right – your baby son suddenly begins sleeping soundly and copiously, you get the perfect park at work – twice! – and your bank gets in touch to say it has made a $100 mistake in your favour, and lets you keep it (ok, so that last one never happens, it is just a dream).

The Reserve Bank of Australia has just had such a week.

When the RBA Board sits down tomorrow for its monthly monetary policy meeting, it will see little reason to move the official cash rate.

All the signs are that the economy is behaving in ways that it has anticipated, and that are broadly in keeping with its monetary policy stance.

Low interest rates appear to be working to encourage activity in non-mining parts of the economy, particularly housing, while the dollar is depreciating and worrying price pressures are yet to appear.

Though there was a slip in building approvals last month (down 1.8 per cent), much of this was due to the volatile apartments segment of the market, and annual growth remains a healthy 23.1 per cent.

Of course, holding interest rates at historically low levels for an extended period carries with it risk, and some have started to fret that a bubble in the housing market, particularly in Sydney, is developing.

But the overblown talk of an over-heating property market, never well-founded, looks increasingly silly. Sure, house prices have surged in the major cities – most notably Sydney and Melbourne – but there are at least three good reasons to dismiss talk of a bubble at this stage. Firstly, there are signs that the market in established housing is losing some of its heat and price growth is easing. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, credit growth remains modest – borrowing for housing grew by 0.5 per cent in each of September and October to be up 5 per cent from a year earlier, which is hardly what could be described as “bubble-like”. Thirdly, the nation’s population is growing at a solid rate of around 1.8 per cent, and the easing dollar makes Australian property an increasingly attractive proposition for foreign investors.

There are also encouraging signs that manufacturers and other businesses are starting to pick up the pace of their investment – a development that is coming none too soon, given the rapid deceleration in mining investment.

Official figures show that in the September quarter, mining companies cut their spending on plant and equipment by 7.1 per cent (while expenditure on buildings and structures increased 5.6 per cent). In the same period, manufacturers spent an extra 3 per cent on plant and equipment, and increased funds for buildings by 1.5 per cent.

Any investment plans should be well supported by healthy balance sheets. The Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed today that business profits grew almost 4 per cent in the September quarter and are up almost 9 per cent in the past year. In the same period, wages have grown 3.1 per cent.

While GDP figures out on Wednesday are likely to show the economy was just ticking over in the September quarter, evidence that non-mining activity is building should push consideration of more rate cuts further into the background.

Instead, the RBA Board may soon begin to consider the timing of a rate hike.

Though it is unlikely to make such a move tomorrow, the central bank will be heartened by the dollar’s slide in recent days. Governor Glenn Stevens made it clear again last week that he thought its sustained strength against the greenback has been increasingly difficult to justify.

Inflation and wages appear well contained for now, but the longer the cash rate is kept at 2.5 per cent, the greater the risk prices could accelerate, which would in turn increase pressure for wage hikes.

As ever for a central bank, the trick is in the timing. Push up rates too soon or too fast, and the dollar could rebound, but leave them low for too long and potentially destabilising price pressures could accumulate.

 

 

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To sell a refugee

What if, instead of trying to turn back leaky boats full of desperate refugees, the Abbott Government could buy its way out of the asylum seeker issue?

What if, as has been suggested, there was a global market in refugee quotas, similar to an emissions trading scheme? What if it was possible for a country like Australia to pay another nation, say Papua New Guinea or Indonesia, to accept a certain proportion of its refugee allocation?

Some might say this is already happening, with Australia using its aid program and other incentives to help convince PNG to allow the Manus Island detention centre to be set up.

But that is an implicit arrangement, and what is envisaged by some is an overt, formalised international market in refugees.

Essentially, international obligations to care for those fleeing persecution and privation would be traded between countries, in much the same way as units of carbon pollution might be.

On the face of it, it could be a win-win transaction – the Australian Government unloads a responsibility it does not want, the PNG Government (for example) gets some hard currency, and the refugees land in a new country.

But, as Harvard University Professor of Government Michael Sandel points out in a thought-provoking piece in the latest Journal of Economic Perspectives from the American Economic Association, there is something inherently distasteful about such a transaction.

“It has something to do with the tendency of a market in refugees to change our view of who refugees are and how they should be treated,” he writes. “It encourages the participants—the buyers, the sellers, and also those whose asylum is being haggled over— to think of refugees as burdens to be unloaded or as revenue sources, rather than as human beings in peril.”

Sandel uses the example of such a scheme to make a broader point about the way many economists and much economic theory tend to view markets.

There is a tendency to treat markets as an impartial and inherently unbiased way of allocating resources, and view them as a handy way to deal with tricky political questions about who should get what.

But Sandel forensically picks apart this assumption, along the way challenging those who cling to the view that economics is essentially a “value-neutral science of social choice”.

As he says, “economists often assume that markets are inert, that they do not touch or taint the goods they regulate. But this is untrue. Markets leave their mark on social norms. Market incentives can even erode or crowd out nonmarket motivations”.

He uses as an example the decision by Israeli childcare centres to start imposing a fine on parents who picked up their children late, forcing teachers to work longer hours.

But once the fee was imposed, the number of parents arriving late for their child pick-up increased, because they treated the fine as a fee – one they were prepared to pay in order to have their child looked after for longer.

Another example of how a market pricing mechanism can debase or corrupt the intent of a policy was the decision of the Canadian Government to allow Inuit communities to sell permits to hunt walrus.

In 1928, the Canadians imposed a nationwide ban on the hunting of walrus, who were rapidly nearing extinction. An exemption was made for the Inuit, who for thousands of years hunted walrus as part of their subsistence lifestyle.

Once they got the go ahead, the Inuit began selling walrus hunting permits for $6000 or more.

“For the Inuit to sell outsiders the right to kill their allotted walruses arguably corrupts the meaning and purpose of the exemption accorded their community in the first place,” Sandel says. “It is one thing is to hono[u]r the Inuit way of life and to respect its long-standing reliance on subsistence walrus hunting. It is quite another to convert that privilege into a cash concession in killing on the side.”

He admits the moral judgements underlying this statement are “contestable”, but returns to the point that a market itself involves value judgements.

Whether or not you agree with his conclusion, Sandel’s piece at least provides an opportunity for economists to reflect on what it is that they do, and how they think.

 

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