Monthly Archives: November 2013

A shortage of jobs, but no shortage of work

In contemporary Australia there might be a (relative) shortage of jobs, but it seems there is no shortage of work.
While the unemployment rate hovers just below 6 per cent (it held steady at 5.7 per cent last month according to the latest official labour force figures), just about anyone with a job will tell you that their work demands are rising relentlessly.
So what is going on?
The latest official employment figures are consistent with a trend that emerged in the middle of last year in which employment growth is slowing but hours worked is accelerating (see Reserve Bank of Australia chart of labour input growth below).

10bl-labinpu

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, aggregate hours worked increased marginally in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms last month, while employment and unemployment were flat (a net 1100 jobs were created, while an additional 9000 job seekers joined the labour market).

The increase in pressure on those still with a job has been accentuated by the inclination of employers to take on part-timers over full-time staff – in the 12 months to October, 53,000 full-time jobs were lost, while during the same period 145,000 part-time positions were added.

Business surveys and the latest job ads report from the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group suggest wary employers are reluctant to take on extra staff.  According to the ANZ, the number of job ads has bottomed in the last two months after falling for most of the year, while an Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry index of labour market conditions reached a four-year low of 43.6 points in the September quarter.

It is not hard to see why: though low interest rates have injected some vigour into the housing sector, the economy remains sluggish.

As RBA Governor Glenn Stevens observed earlier this week, the economy is still fumbling its way forward as the mining investment boom rapidly dissipates and other sources of growth are yet to establish themselves.

Couple this with the continued strength of the dollar and tepid global growth, and it is little wonder businesses are reluctant to take on extra staff.

Instead, as the data indicate, employers are choosing to use their existing workforce to cope with any increase in demand.

This is why those who have a job feel like they are working twice as hard, even as hundreds of thousands are banging on the door looking for employment.

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Strong dollar casts cloud over outlook

The strong Australian dollar is keeping the Reserve Bank of Australia on edge as it observes tentative signs of improvement in the non-mining sectors of the economy.

The central bank appears likely to hold interest rates steady well into 2014 as it tries to assess how competing forces – the boost to activity from record low interest rates against the depressive effects of a high dollar, rapidly receding mining investment and below-average global growth – will work on the economy over the next few months.

The RBA has taken heart from evidence that a string of rate cuts that have pushed the cash rate down to 2.5 per cent are biting, and households are shedding much of their recent caution and life is coming back into the housing and equity markets.

As evidence of this, it points to increased demand from households for finance and a shift among savers away from low-risk assets.

In a clear warning for those hoping for more official interest rate cuts, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that the full effects of the rate cuts made this year are yet to be felt.

But nor does the RBA seem to be in a hurry to hike rates back toward more normal levels.

Its chief concern is the continued strength of the dollar, which has sat around the 95 US cents mark for the past month.

At this level, Stevens said, it “is still uncomfortably high. A lower level of the exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy”.

The RBA’s ability exert influence on the exchange rate is minor – mainly through the interest rate differential between Australian and US official interest rates – but at the margin it could encourage the central bank to hold rates lower for longer.

Another argument to keep interest rates down is doubts about how durable recent improvements in non-mining activity may be. As Stevens admitted, although private demand outside the mining sector was expected to pick up, “considerable uncertainty surrounds this outlook”.

Another concern is the move by the big banks to begin inching up their lending rates, irrespective of the stable cash rate.

There is probably never a particularly comfortable time to be a central banker, but the next few months could be a particularly white knuckle time.

 

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